The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect and Current Politics

In a recent comment here Andrew Garland referred to a 2009 comment by Chicago Boyz contributor Michael Kennedy, quoting Michael Crichton. It is worth re-posting the Crichton quote in full:

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
 
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

I thought about this because I have been having an email exchange with a left-wing acquaintance of mine. My acquaintance thinks highly of Obama’s performance in office. Like many of us, my acquaintance has noticed an increase in racial animosity over the seven years of Obama’s presidency. My acquaintance attributes this increased racial tension to racists, presumably white, who “are driven practically insane at the thought of having a black president”.

I am sure that there are such people. A quick tour of the Internet reveals plenty of racism to go around. And yet none of the many anti-Obama arguments I’ve read or heard has been based on race; conservative media are full of substantive arguments against Obama and his policies. Meanwhile Obama and his political allies have gone out of their way to racialize political controversies. And yet most of the Obama partisans I’ve met have been confident that white racism is the cause of most opposition to Obama. Apparently there are many people out there who believe that wet streets cause rain.

Conditional Probabilities

Daniel Henninger in the WSJ:

Still, it takes a lot to believe that Donald Trump could win more electoral-college votes than Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders and that his Supreme Court appointments would have Justice Scalia’s respect for the lives of his voters. Mr. Trump’s nominations for anything sit as a mystery.
 
Before Justice Scalia’s death, some might have said the Trump option was a risk worth running. The risk now has become too high.

He has a point.

Quoted: Florence King

~ “Hell hath no fury like a liberal arts major scorned.”

~ “…even my different drummer heard a different drummer…”

~ “Feminists will not be satisfied until every abortion is performed by a gay black doctor under an endangered tree on a reservation for handicapped Indians.”

~ “Keep dating and you will become so sick, so badly crippled, so deformed, so emotionally warped and mentally defective that you will marry anybody.”

~ “One of the most startling phenomena I ever witnessed occurred in the South after the Arab- Israeli Six-day war. I doubt if the world has ever seen such a rapid ceasefire in anti-semitism. I heard one Southern man after another say in tones that I can only describe as gleeful: ‘by dern, those Jew boys sure can fight!’ One man seriously recommended that Congress pass a special act making Moshe Dayan an American citizen so that he could become Secretary of Defense. He had obviously found a new hero;’as he put it ‘That one-eyed bastid would wipe out anybody offin the map whut gave us any trouble.”

Quote of the Day

JPMorgan trimmed GoPro’s target to 45 from 55. On Friday, Robert W. Baird downgraded GoPro to neutral from outperform and slashed its price target to 18 from 36. Shares were hit last week, when chip supplier Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) gave weak guidance due in part to soft action camera sales

(Source)
 
Thanks, guys!
 

GPRO_20151207

 
 
 
Oh, BTW…
 
SWHC_20151207

 
(Charts courtesy StockCharts.com.)