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    Anticipating An Israeli Attack On Iran

    Posted by Jonathan on 2nd February 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Is Israel preparing to attack Iran? asks David Ignatius.

    I think the obvious answer is yes. So why is the US govt trying to stop it?

    -Answer 1: Obama doesn’t want any trouble (e.g., high fuel prices, possible US involvement) going into the November elections.

    -Answer 2: Obama doesn’t want anyone to attack Iran under any circumstances.

    -Answer 3: Obama is confident that his overt/covert appeasement/negotiation campaign will eventually work and doesn’t want anyone else to front run him.

    -Answer 4: We really do want Israel to attack Iran, but as in 1981 with Iraq we will publicly condemn while privately applauding.

    -Answer 5: Obama is planning to attack Iran and doesn’t want to share credit with anyone else.

    ???

    UPDATE: Via Robert Schwartz, Barry Rubin’s well reasoned argument that there will be no attack on Iran.

    Posted in Iran, Israel, National Security, Politics, War and Peace | 18 Comments »

    Republican Own Goals

    Posted by Jonathan on 2nd February 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    As Gingrich attacks Romney for being successful, and Romney proves too slow on his feet to talk about his admirable business career without apologizing or making gaffes, the Republicans cede the narrative to Obama. Intrade shows Obama’s reelection odds creeping up as Republican candidates, egged on by hostile media, bog down in discussions of fairness and the appropriate cap-gains tax rate for “the rich”. Romney in particular doesn’t seem to understand the political dynamic. He ought to put much more effort into attacking Obama, whose record in office is terrible. In this environment no Republican is going to win the presidency by being a nice guy.

    Part of what’s happening is that the economy is recovering, to some degree because the Fed is signaling that it’s going to keep suppressing short rates and buying up long-term govt debt for the foreseeable future. This is an insane policy that funnels money to Obama’s Wall Street cronies while killing low-risk investment opportunities for middle-class retirees. It seems likely to lead eventually to significant inflation. Romney, as the likely Republican nominee, should be hammering the Fed for ineptitude and corruption, for running an unsustainable monetary policy and trying to goose the markets into the election. He should be hammering Obama for trying to reinflate the credit markets to buy votes. (The residential real estate market seems to be picking up, perhaps to some degree in response to Obama’s mortgage-subsidy vote-buying scheme. But it may also be that people see inflation coming and want to exchange cash, especially borrowed cash, for real assets.)

    Obama has been very bad for the country. His high tax, high regulation, high cronyism, high uncertainty policies suppress productive investment and throw vast amounts of private capital down politically favored sinkholes. Conservative and moderate/uncommitted voters alike yearn for a Republican candidate who forthrightly defends free enterprise and the opportunity society against Obama’s decadent, stratified socialist ineptocracy. Romney, the great businessman, the man who has been running for president for six or seven years, is tongue tied. My first thought is, This is the best our country can do? My second thought is that maybe Romney will pick up his game as the nomination becomes increasingly certain and he focuses more on November. Hope springs eternal.

    Posted in Economics & Finance, Obama, Politics | 3 Comments »

    Quote of the Day

    Posted by Jonathan on 2nd February 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Beware the irrational, however seductive. Shun the ‘transcendent’ and all who invited you to subordinate or annihilate yourself. Distrust compassion; prefer dignity for yourself and others. Don’t be afraid to be thought arrogant or selfish. Picture all experts as if they were mammals. Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence. Suspect your own motives, and all excuses. Do not live for others any more than you would expect others to live for you.

    -Christopher Hitchems, Letters to a Young Contrarian

    (Via Alan Johnson)

    Posted in Quotations, Rhetoric | 2 Comments »

    Brief Canon Lens Reviews

    Posted by Jonathan on 2nd February 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    The topic of DSLR camera lenses will be esoteric for most readers here. However, it won’t go out of date and will remain on this blog for future reference by Chicagoboyz readers and parachutists from Google.

    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in Personal Narrative, Tech | No Comments »

    Florida Everglades

    Posted by Jonathan on 2nd February 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    This is one of many new images in my Everglades gallery here.

    An American Black Vulture (Coragyps atratus) watches American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) basking in the sun in the marshy part of a slough near the Anhinga Trail in Everglades National Park, Florida. (© Jonathan Gewirtz)

    Posted in Photos | 5 Comments »

    Burmese Pythons in the Everglades

    Posted by Jonathan on 31st January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    A just-released study suggests that Burmese Pythons have devastated Florida Everglades animal populations (e.g., raccoon and opossum sightings are down by 99%).

    The pythons were originally released in the Everglades by people who had kept them as pets and their population has grown rapidly. It’s possible that much of the snake population was killed off by last year’s cold snap. However, as with cancer cells, a fast-growing population regenerates quickly unless almost all of its members are exterminated.

    The cited article points out that it’s not certain the snakes are responsible for radical declines in small-animal populations but that no one has a better explanation.

    The article mentions the possibility of preventing the snakes from expanding their territory but doesn’t discuss how close the snake population is to equilibrium in its current habitat. (Since a large number of prey animals needs to be around to support each predator, and Everglades prey populations appear to have been radically reduced, how close is the snake population to equilibrium?) Also, I wonder if the snakes will kill off the panther population by depleting its food supply.

    Naturally, the federal govt has responded to the snake problem by banning importation and interstate trade of several kinds of snakes. This will have no effect. The snake is out of the barn, so to speak.

    “Pythons are wreaking havoc on one of America’s most beautiful, treasured and naturally bountiful ecosystems,” said Marcia McNutt, director of the U.S. Geological Survey, whose scientists contributed to the study. “Right now, the only hope to halt further python invasion into new areas is swift, decisive and deliberate human action.”

    I wonder if it’s possible to constrain the snakes to their current habitat. From the tone of the article, and frequent media stories about giant snakes captured in the wild, it looks like the Park Service is slowly trying to figure out what to do. Maybe they should try to eradicate the snakes altogether. OTOH, I wonder how much farther North the snakes can migrate before they get killed off by winter freezes.

    I don’t know if there’s a moral or political point to be made here. It’s a difficult problem.

    Posted in Environment | 17 Comments »

    Dwarf Cypress Forest, Florida Everglades

    Posted by Jonathan on 31st January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Following this photo posted a few days ago, this new photo comes from the opposite side of the road, just before sunset.

    Dwarf Cypress forest in Everglades National Park, Florida. (© Jonathan Gewirtz)

    Posted in Photos | 3 Comments »

    “The Zionist Imperative”

    Posted by Jonathan on 29th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Caroline Glick:

    Today’s principal form of Jew-hatred is anti- Zionism. Anti-Zionism is similar to previous dominant forms of Jew hatred such as Christian anti-Judaism, xenophobic and racist anti- Semitism, and Communist anti-Jewish cosmopolitanism in the sense that it takes dominant, popular social trends and turns them against the Jews. Anti-Zionism’s current predominance owes to the convergence of several popular social trends which include Western post-nationalism, and anti-colonialism.

    Worth reading in full.

    UPDATE: David Foster provides a link to a well written blog post about a BDS conference at U. Penn.

    Posted in International Affairs, Iran, Israel, Judaism, Quotations, USA | 6 Comments »

    Think Big

    Posted by Jonathan on 29th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    A Yorkshire Terrier standing on a piece of stuffed furniture over a large rawhide bone. (© Jonathan Gewirtz, jonathan@gewirtz.net)

    Posted in Photos | No Comments »

    “25 time-lapse videos reeking of awesomeness”

    Posted by Jonathan on 27th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Here (opens new window).

    I like “SF to Paris in Two Minutes” but I didn’t watch all of them.

    Posted in Diversions, Video | 2 Comments »

    Cypress Forest, Florida Everglades

    Posted by Jonathan on 26th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Bald Cypress forest in Everglades National Park, Florida. (Jonathan Gewirtz)

     

    Posted in Photos | 10 Comments »

    Facebook Again

    Posted by Jonathan on 25th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    [Bumped. I need 12 more likes. Many thanks to everyone who already clicked my button, if you will.]

    Having cooled off after my last attempt to set up a FB page I have reactivated my account (because nothing is ever forgotten at Facebook) and am ready to give it another go. If you have a FB account I’d be grateful if you could click my Like button. I need 25 likes so that I can change my URL.

    Thanks again.

     

    UPDATE: If the like box doesn’t appear here, please click here to visit my page.

    UPDATE 2: Mission accomplished. Thanks to all who clicked.

    Posted in Personal Narrative | 8 Comments »

    Posted by Jonathan on 24th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Miami Marine Stadium

    Posted in Photos | 8 Comments »

    “Image Sharpness: Shutter Speed, Handholding and Stabilization”

    Posted by Jonathan on 24th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    A new post on my photoblog.

    Posted in Diversions | No Comments »

    Random Thought

    Posted by Jonathan on 23rd January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    A popular and I suspect effective marketing technique for your Internet-based business is to write blog posts and/or give seminars, post videos, sell books, etc. describing how your business became successful. However, many of the people doing the marketing have been online since before the Internet became big or had successful businesses before they went online, and it’s impossible to know how much of their success came from smart business practices that anyone can use and how much from first-mover advantages and network effects. They may be successful because they started when there was little competition and didn’t make any big mistakes. That’s much different from saying you can be successful if you start now and run your business as they do.

    Posted in Business, Economics & Finance | No Comments »

    Posted by Jonathan on 20th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Hobie Beach Sunset

    Posted in Photos | No Comments »

    You Mean He Doesn’t Really Talk Like This?

    Posted by Jonathan on 19th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Posted in Humor, Politics, Video | 3 Comments »

    “What The Republican ‘Establishment’ Really Means”

    Posted by Jonathan on 18th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    A magisterial post by Baseball Crank (via Rand Simberg):

    There is general philosophical agreement among both Republicans and conservatives about all of this. Where the fault line lies is in exactly how far we are willing to go to do something about it. Many people who got into politics as good conservatives, and still think themselves good conservatives constrained by the limits of practical possibility, are at a loss when it comes to meaningful ways to tame Leviathan. For reasons, some good (the need to use political power to protect national security, preserve control of the courts and restrain regulatory overreach), some less so, they have thrown in the towel on the central issue of the day. That is who we speak of as the “Establishment.” Others – not always with a sense of proportion or possibility, but driven by the urgency of the cause – seek dramatic confrontations to prevent the menace of excessive spending from passing the tipping point where we can no longer save room for the private sector. They are the Outsiders, the ones challenging the system and its fundamental assumptions. The analogy of a Tea Party is an apt one: the Founding Fathers had much in common with the Tories of their day, but disagreed on a fundamental question, not of principle, but of practical politics: whether revolution was needed to protect their traditional rights as Englishmen from being eradicated by the growing encroachments of the British Crown. As it was then, the gulf between the two is the defining issue of today’s Republican Party and conservative movement.
     
    In short, the real “Establishment” and “Outsider,” “anti-Establishment” or “Tea Party” factions are not about who is conservative or moderate, or who is inside or outside the Beltway or public office, or who has fancy degrees or a large readership/listenership or attends the right cocktail parties or churches, or even necessarily who has or has not supported various candidates. The term “Establishment” is used and abused in those contexts, but invariably describes only a division of passing significance. The real battle between the Establishment and the Outsiders is between those who urge significant changes in our spending patterns as a necessity to preserve the America we have known, and those who are unwilling to take that step. It is, in short, between those who are, and those who are not, willing to take action in the belief that the currently established structure of how public money is spent is unsustainable and must be fixed while it still can if we are not to lose by encroachments the all the other things Republicans and conservatives stand for.

    Read the whole thing.

    Posted in Big Government, Political Philosophy, Politics, Tea Party | 9 Comments »

    Margaret Thatcher on Income Inequality

    Posted by Jonathan on 18th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    This video clip has appeared on other blogs but it’s worth posting again.
     

     
    How fortunate the world was to have had both Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in office at the same time.
     

    Posted in Political Philosophy, Politics, Video | 17 Comments »

    Posted by Jonathan on 15th January 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Bird Flying Low Over Water

    Posted in Photos | 5 Comments »