Pundita, the DC based foreign policy blogger, is a longtime read for me due to her shrewd observations, usually expressed with tart sarcasm. Her post below is no exception:
Note to Pakistan’s armed forces: President Obama is throwing you a lifeline; better grab it
Even many Pakistanis believe the ISI was harboring Osama bin Laden, so there’s a lot of blame-shifting and finger-pointing going on in the government. And, as B. Raman details in his May 17 post, the armed forces feel humiliated because the U.S. was able to pull off the raid in Abbottabad right under their noses.
However, the military has told so many lies over the years to puff up their efficiency that several Qaeda-friendly jihadi groups in Pakistan don’t believe the raid could have been carried off without cooperation from a branch of the military. So those groups are on a rampage against Pakistan’s military.
In short, Rawalpindi is getting it from all sides in the wake of the Abbottabad raid. For that reason Raman is concerned that Rawalpindi might try to put a shine back on its tarnished reputation by directing terrorist attack at India. That would be a stupid move because it took everyone outside Syria all of 6 minutes to figure out that Syria’s government was behind the Palestinian ‘freedom protest’ against Israel on May 15 — 1 minute to realize what the government was up to (Bashy Assad’s attempt to deflect world attention from his brutal quashing of Syrian protests) and the remaining 5 minutes to attempt to figure out whether Bashy thought the year was 1990 or 1982. (1)
….The only people in Washington still pushing the line are influence agents in the pay of Pakistan’s government and U.S. defense analysts and NATO toadies who are so daffy they couldn’t find their hands with a flashlight. Either way, nobody’s buying the line anymore that Pakistan carries out atrocities because it’s scared of India.
Understand? Humpty Dumpty has fallen off the wall. If Islamabad and Rawalpindi think China can help put Humpty back together they’re not only behind the times, they also don’t understand the Chinese.(2)
More than they want to see India destabilized, more than they want to see the United States preoccupied with the war on terror, more than anything in the world, the Chinese want China to be a great nation and to be seen as such on the world stage. The Chinese know what it takes to be seen as a great nation. So, only provided the terrorists Rawalpindi nurtured kept it down to a dull roar was Beijing was willing to support Pakistan’s bloody-minded machinations against India and the United States. But if Pakistanis think the Chinese will risk everything they’ve sacrificed for, just to be seen by the world as supporters of a nation of anarchist terrorists, those Pakistanis need their heads examined.
If Rawalpindi doesn’t want to believe me, it needs to believe this: At the end of April, China’s government published in English) a white paper on the country’s planned next phase in its foreign aid policy . The government has more than a $1 trillion to lavish on aid. About half the aid is earmarked for North Korea but a large chunk of the remainder Beijing plans to lavish on investment in U.S. companies.
The plan is not made from the goodness of their hearts; the leaders want concessions from the U.S. government in return for their largesse. But the new policy also indicates that China’s government has listened to every criticism that’s been voiced about its earlier foreign-aid policy and is adjusting the new policy accordingly.
Read the rest here.
Pundita is spot on. If anything, she’s too nice about making her point ( must be mellowing).
I will be more blunt; Pakistan is an unfixable horror show and an enemy of the United States by any rational metric that can be applied. Worse than Iran. North Korea is a toss-up. We need to disentangle ourselves from a nation hell-bent on provoking a nuclear war with its giant neighbor, India and that plots terrorism against us with the intent of killing US citizens. I am no fan of President Obama but his moving multiple, nuclear-armed, aircraft carrier groups to Pakistan’s coast is the smartest move the US has made in regard to Pakistan in 10 years.
Bribery is an ancient tradition in foreign policy, and it is the policy the USG has followed in regard to Islamabad. But in the time honored tradition of Chicago Alderman, the recipient has to stay bribed. Pakistani generals welsh, and when bribery fails, that leaves only the gun. But we can begin by not cutting the ISI mafia any more billion dollar checks.
Today outgoing Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen held a press conference. Pakistan was one of the subjects raised by reporters.
I am an enormous fan of Secretary Gates. I would sleep better at night if he were the President. That said, he shoveled more horse manure today regarding the US-Pakistani relationship than in his entire career with the US government – including all the time he spent at the CIA.
I’ll lay odds of 50-50 that we’ll be at war with these people in under two years.
First we need to get our troops out of Afghanistan. They are hostages to the Pakis who control their logistics. Besides the enemy in Afghanistan is created, funded, and directed by Pakistan. We are fighting the wrong war.
Americans tolerate that in Pakistan which they would never in Iran. It’s bizarre but a part of it is the way they are conditioned to think by an elite with a lot of bad decisions on its hands. To be blunt, righties and lefties in DC have some bad stuff on their consciences. Here are examples of “conditioning”:
“Our ally,” “you have to remember there are different Pakistans,” and so on and so forth. I am disappointed with the reaction that I read at Hot Air or the National Review or other right-of-center partisan sites. Only Victor Davis Hanson and Glenn Reynolds are on the right track. Everyone else thinks it’s 1985.
According to Col. Patrick Lang’s site (thanks for the tip, zen), Pakistan now has missiles whose range includes Israel? Any of the “checkmating Iran and Russia” geniuses who want to keep Pakistan in the fold thought that through?
I used to think the same about logistics, Robert – and it is true to an extent – but we also don’t push where we have leverage and so allow ourselves to be blackmailed. That’s on us Americans. Who was responsible for a campaign with a big footprint through Pakistan?
I don’t say these things because I am of Indian origin. In fact, I was more tolerant of Pakistan’s elites before I started reading about our Afghanistan campaign. Then I started reading different military journals and think tank websites.
I got a huge, sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. I really got sick. “Something’s not right here,” I thought.
If you want to take money from American while hosting groups that shoot at American soldiers, and worse, then infiltrate DC over decades of South Asian policy.
Get your Generals to train in America. Get America’s state department to send over groups of people from USAID. Have baby boomer Cold Warriors remember with nostalgia and affection America’s routing of the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 80s. Have a NATO ally use your troops to shield their populations at home from their dopey immigration polices.
It’s that bad folks. So Pundita and Zen are right. Get up to speed on the strange, twisted American-Pakistani relationship for the past sixty years and the way it has left a lot of bad baggage within our on institutions in DC. If you think I’m conspiratorial, just wait. I’ll do a post.
And Peggy Noonan was on the right track but people have to be partisan first and I guess I’m one of them. But domestic policy won’t let you see the truth in that part of the world and how negative it has all been for American interests. Our troops are expendable, apparently, compared to the little hopes, dreams, and wishes of DC types and their partisan enablers.
We let the worst sort of personal indulgences color American foreign policy.
1. The Bush administration had a small footprint but went back to old Cold War chumminess with Musharraf. I guess a bunch of old foreign policy hands from the Nixon administration bought the standard Pak mil line hook line and sinker. The truth they got afraid. We have no idea if “our guys” are really “our guys” or if they can significantly influence things.
Did you all see the look of fear in Donald Rumsfeld’s eyes when Greta Van Sustern asked him if he thought, “Musharraff was straight with you?”
2. The Obama administration had the advantage that Bush finally got fed up with the Pakistanis and sped up the clandestine independent operations so all this partisan talk about torture got us off the real path. What changed was our tolerance levels and Obama is better on this. Unfortunately, his foreign policy advisors want to save the world via State department and World Bankd/IMF largesse.
Congress will have to do many hearings and think hard. The way forward is not entirely clear but we need do realize that our old ideas are wrong.
I remember years ago Andrew Exum asking at Abu Muqawama about a “land bridge” to Pakistan. So I guess all of the stuff I wrote above is conjecture and people kind of knew what they were up against but weren’t able to break out of old habits or old boxes.
It’s not 1985 anymore and too many people in DC have close ties to the Pak mil establishment. I mean, in terms of the legacy it left on our intellectual institutions. You’d think old Sovietologists would understand the influences working a long time with an illiberal regime would have on your own thinking.
archrival, encirclement, strategic depth….all bullsh*t ideas from the P military that infiltrated our own thinking.
Someone, somewhere, sometime in DC has to think what our real interests are in South Asia. Fat chance, given the old partisan habits that form and reform and reform. Ugh.
This by Pundita is terribly important:
Our enabling of the regime is as dangerous regarding the nuclear weapons as “keeping our friends close, and our enemies closer,” policy. The more money we spend, the more weapons they build. But we have to pay to get our guys in the country and so can continue to do that clandestine stuff.
But there might be another way….
That’s the problem, Robert. No one is thinking outside the old boxes. A lot of DC types have made some very bad decisions and would rather sweep stuff under the rug. Partisans will help them.
– Madhu
I will rewrite my comment as a blog post because I was in such a hurry that I messed it all up. I think the points are important.
Thank you, zen, for this post.
– Madhu
First, we need to get the troops out of Afghanistan. No telling which way the fallout will blow from Islamabad.
Great comment Doc Madhu.
Agreed, gents. There a to be a reduction in troops to remove Pakistani leverage but I will note that US air assets in Afghanistan coupled with carrier groups currently put Islamabad in an untenable position
LOL. Just LOL.
Pakistan has nuclear weapons because of it’s great fear of India and because it is a relatively advanced country. It has a large army dedicated to a land war with India.
You come traipsing in to punish the Taliban because you can’t nail Osama and he lived with them. They offered him to you if you could come up with some proof of this. As you had the bit in your teeth you just muscled up the situation till the Taliban dispersed, very wisely. They hound you to this day.
Pakistan is not to blame for any of this. Osama was YOUR boy.
Pakistan has to live with Afghanistan as well as deal with India. This is not an easy situation for them on many levels but the ISI has the responsibility to deal with it in a way that benefits Pakistan.
Go ahead and attack Pakistan. It will finish you quickly. You have reached the limits of your power and attacking Pakistan would demonstrate that conclusively.
Pen, you need better talking points.
Osama was never “Our boy” in any sense at any time. If you think he was, let’s see your source.
Secondly, the Taliban vaguely offered in 2001 to send OBL to a third Muslim country for trial, nott to hand him over to the US, after he left his compound and was parts unknown. It was BS then and still is ten years later. Even were it sincere, the US was not bound to accept that non- response to complicity in 9/11
Pakistan’s games with India have little to do with extending aid to AQ fighters through their proxies, which the Taliban were and remain to this day. Pakistani state interests take a backseat to pan-Islamism in the ISI or are conflated as one in the same
As for Pakistan finishing the US, you are simply fantasizing dude. Find a Pakistani general who thinks that is a viable option
pakistan is one of the most hate filled places on the planet. it won’t end well for the haters there, but it will end. they are beyond redemption…
Zenpundit,
It’s not a question of us “being” at war with Pakistan. They have been making war on us. It’s a question of when we fight back
There is a related question about covert vs. overt. Their attacks on us have pretty much been covert so far, and IMO our fighting back will initially be covert too.
“As for Pakistan finishing the US, you are simply fantasizing dude. Find a Pakistani general who thinks that is a viable option”
The act of attacking Pakistan which you can easily defeat will finish your country as a major power … fast. On your present course you have a year or two.
You have not noticed I guess.
Osama was almost for sure a CIA asset because of his efforts in Afghanistan against the Russians. There are innumerable links. Google is your friend.
Pakistan has a long relationship with many levels of Afghan society because of their need to keep the Indians out of the game. Recent developments with the US encouraging Indian involvement is just stupid. They will continue that relationship no matter what the US wants. They will still be there long after you are gone.
Again none of this is Pakistan’s fault. You are the ones running around chasing flies with a sledge hammer.
?! If hostilities did occur (say after an ISI-linked Pakistani-American blows himself up on US soil, spilling American blood) and US targeted attacks severely downgraded the Pakistani military over time, what, if any, psychological effect does it have on Pakistani society when the Indians then do nothing to take advantage of Pakistan’s weakness?
Could they accept India respectfully fears the Pakistani nuclear deterrent and make demands of the military to stand down its increasingly heightened role in society, its outrageous funding demands when so many Pakistanis struggle to survive daily existence and begin a retrenchment of its very significant role in the Pakistani economy?
I agree with Zen (fantastic analysis and fusion with Pundita’s viewpoint btw) that we will be in some form of hostility with the Pakistani security establishment within two years. They are too embedded in their narrow existential obsession with India to realize the danger they place themselves and their country in. Contrast that with India, who irrespective of policy failures and nationalist strains, is trying its best to move beyond antagonism and war with Pakistan since it realizes that path only promises to retard India’s continued development.
“Osama was almost for sure a CIA asset because of his efforts in Afghanistan against the Russians. There are innumerable links. Google is your friend.”
Thank you Pen for admitting you are just blowing smoke and have no idea what you are talking about.
“The act of attacking Pakistan which you can easily defeat will finish your country as a major power … fast. On your present course you have a year or two”
You have got to be kidding me. Far from wanting to attack Pakistan, the USG establishment is currently doing cartwheels and backflips to try and get the next multi-billion dollar aid package for Islamabad through a Congress that is waking up to the fact that the rulers of Pakistan hate America and wish us harm.
Well, if they succeed, Kayani and the ISI will promptly spit in the administration’s face and then, I expect, subsequently pull off some terrorist “American Mumbai” stunt so heinous that you will be watching ISI HQ and AQ Khan’s mansion go up in smoke under 2000 lb bombs on CNN
Gracias Eddie!
“I’ll lay odds of 50-50 that we’ll be at war with these people in under two years.”
Pakistan’s at war with us now but Americans have this strange idea that it takes two to throw a war.
“Well, if they succeed, Kayani and the ISI will promptly spit in the administration’s face and then, I expect, subsequently pull off some terrorist “American Mumbai” stunt so heinous that you will be watching ISI HQ and AQ Khan’s mansion go up in smoke under 2000 lb bombs on CNN.” And Zen wins the internets for today.
“ISI HQ and AQ Khan’s mansion go up in smoke under 2000 lb bombs on CNN”
If there’s an “American Mumbai,” I would prefer something heaver than 2KBombs.
Thank you Pen for admitting you are just blowing smoke and have no idea what you are talking about.
Oh my 871,000 responses:
http://www.google.ca/search?q=osama+cia+agent&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
Well, if they succeed, Kayani and the ISI will promptly spit in the administration’s face and then, I expect, subsequently pull off some terrorist “American Mumbai” stunt so heinous that you will be watching ISI HQ and AQ Khan’s mansion go up in smoke under 2000 lb bombs on CNN.
So is this your dream or your fear? The US richly deserves what is coming.
Well if it is on google it must be true.
Pakistan’s at war with us now but Americans have this strange idea that it takes two to throw a war.
Yes and not just Pakistan. There’s also Iran and perhaps a few others.
Yes and not just Pakistan. There’s also Iran and perhaps a few others.
Yup we are all terrorists now. Time for T-Shirt.
Pen, there’s no credible expert on terrorism, Afghnistan or Islamism who posits OBL as having been a CIA client. Moreover, the jihadi radicals themselves deny it, including those like Abu Al-Masri who are sharp critics of OBL. It’s Truther territory nonsense.
You are so jacked up on anti-Americanism that you can’t think straight
About 2,940,000 results searching a connection between Roswell, NM and aliens. According to PenGun’s logic, aliens landing in Roswell is 3.375 times more true than Osama bin Laden being a CIA agent.
Mishu – outstanding.
Pen, there’s no credible expert on terrorism, Afghnistan or Islamism who posits OBL as having been a CIA client. Moreover, the jihadi radicals themselves deny it, including those like Abu Al-Masri who are sharp critics of OBL. It’s Truther territory nonsense.
You are so jacked up on anti-Americanism that you can’t think straight
Au contraire. Your credible experts are just part of your group which wants ongoing global war as it’s the only way America will not face it’s coming bankruptcy.
Whether Osama was an asset or not the mujahedin in Afghanistan at that time were supported by the CIA. He fought for your people against the Russians. In this sense he certainly benefited from your training, weapons and support. He was certainly not Pakistan’s fault in any real way. More like a little blowback in fact.
As you have killed a million mostly innocent people in your efforts since 9/11 a lot of us are anti American.
Tom Ricks’ blog has a very good – and grimly funny – comment from a one “staff guy” on a thought-provoking post re: NATO in “Afpak”:
Sigh. No preview always messes up my blockquotes. Aargh. I swear. That’s it.
– Madhu
You’ve all probably have seen Eli Lake’s article at TNR:
http://www.tnr.com/article/world/magazine/88623/pakistani-intelligence-osama-bin-laden-cia
Enemy of the State
“Are we at war with Pakistan’s intelligence service?”
Steven den Beste at Hot Air popped into the comment section to say they’ve probably been at war with us since the late 90s.
And since ISI is Army is the state unto itself….
But no one wants an out and out war. That would be folly and madness so instead we have the covert proxy stuff going on.
PenGun – Canadian troops have fought alongside Americans in almost all our overseas conflicts, including Afghanistan.
And there are reasons for Pakistanis leaders to do what they do and they have nothing to do with America. The brown peoples of the world have agency. They are not simply extras in your weird anti-American mental drama.
Perhaps I will do a post about Indians living in Canada and the racism they have sometimes faced.
I have relatives living there. I like Canada and it’s a shame a Canadian like you is so full of hate.
How many innocent Pakistanis have died because of apologias by American hating and guilt ridden types?
So sad.
– Madhu
To clarify some of my remarks to PenGun (because, as usual, I’m rushed and typing too fast….)
The foreign policies of the neighbours have been closely aligned since the Cold War and after. However, Canada has disagreed with American policies regarding the Vietnam War, the status of Cuba, the Iraq War, Missile Defense, and the War on Terrorism. A serious diplomatic debate is whether the Northwest Passage is in international waters or under Canadian jurisdiction. – Wikipedia “Canada-US”
We are a big trading partner, obviously, so I’ve never understood the anti-Americanism of certain quarters which is, I think, amplified by Americas own anti-Americans. I don’t think it is as bad as it is made out to be, generally.
– Madhu
*My last comment directed to Pen Gun because, of course, he is not interested in a dialogue. Only online troll theater.
It seems the best way to stave off our inevitable national bankruptcy is to conquer Canada, sell its inhabitants of unmatched pasty whiteness into Middle Eastern slavery, cause a global crash in the price of fresh ice by selling off icebergs, conduct polar bear diplomacy by withholding polar bears from foreign zoos unless they do our bidding, and turn Alberta into a giant gaping hole of unmatched size by strip mining it for its precious, precious oil sands. We can blame the Canadians since they’re living on our land in America irredenta.
Pen, the distance from critic to crank begins with a single step and you appear to ave completed the journey when all experts are part and parcel of a grand conspiracy.
See Doc Madhu’s comment regarding agency
“Pen, the distance from critic to crank begins with a single step and you appear to ave completed the journey when all experts are part and parcel of a grand conspiracy.”
You have taken a massive criminal act and instead of a massive criminal response you started a war on terror.
Because of that about a million innocent people have died.
You attacked Iraq which had nothing at all to do with the 9/11 event and Afghanistan which was peripherally involved with the Taliban harboring Osama. Again around a million innocent people have died because of these events.
Experts are a dime a dozen and their opinions are legion.
It is probable 9/11 was faked. Although one could make a case for the Twin Towers the collapse of WTC 7 was gratuitous. The attack on the Pentagon with supposedly an airliner left unburned paper on the side of the 40′ hole this event produced. An airliner has wings.
None of this makes engineering sense. Thermite is the only way molten metal could be found in the wreckage days after the event, No fuel fire could produce those temperatures. I must trust my eyes over the story that was told.
I form my own opinions based on the truth I can assemble from the huge mass of opinion available. I say opinion as I take no ones’ as true. I can tease the truth from enough lies though.
As far as I can tell there are criminals running your country. It’s not unusual in this world.
As the universe is based on cause and effect, karma, I expect your downturn to be steep and it appears I may get my way. I would like the US to lose it’s special status, again, it’s likely.
Zen,
United States can’t materially influence Pakistani support of terrorism, including terrorism against America, by talking at them.
The reason is that Pakistan is a fake state.
Not a failed state.
A FAKE STATE.
There never was a Pakistani state in the Western sense. What Westerners see as an organized state is just a facade, a Potemkin village.
The result of this is that there is no one arbiter of Pakistani action, or group of factions, capable of restraining the support of terrorism by other major factions in Pakistan.
What we see as a Pakistani “state” is just a scam, a hustle. A vehicle by which the various Pakistani power factions/family-based groups extract resources from the Pakistani people, and gullible foreigners, for their own purposes, and to keep foreigners from upsetting their power.
The Pakistani Army, chief among the Pakistani power factions, knows how to share the wealth in a better, less corrupt manner than Pakistani civilian politicians (who are very corrupt and have sharing issues) and the Jihadi nuts (who are on a mission from God).
This is why the Pakistani army periodically takes over the Pakistani state, and then cedes it back to the civilian politicians. It knows it can’t run everything and it needs civilian front men to get money from the West.
Furthermore the concept of a Pakistani “nation” does not really exist save in the minds of foreigners. The Muslim peoples of Pakistan, and even the Pakistani army, present an extreme form of what passes for Canadian nationalism, in which Canadians primarily view themselves and their country as “not American”.
Only the Pakistanis view themselves as Muslims opposed to the existence of India. They really, really hate India. Few Canadians hate America. The vast majority of Pakistanis hate India.
This means that terrorist activities aimed at India, including but not limited to Kashmir, are a prerequisite activity for any Pakistani power faction attempting to gain dominant power there. Our attempts to limit Pakistanis terrorism against India are an on-going threat to Pakistani domestic stability, such as it is.
India’s immediate problems and the WORLD’s stem from Pakistan. It is the Disneyland of jihad and India is their neighbor. Outside Afghanistan, the rest of the world is escaping the mayhem because India is both next door and a soft target. India defeated multiple Pakistani backed insurgences and then Pakistani terrorists attacked soft targets inside India like Mumbai.
What Abbottabad showed is the Pakistanis did that “attacking of soft targets” to America first, on 9/11/2001, as well
Pakistan does this because it can, and thanks to its nukes, the fake Pakistani state is safe to continue these policies. That isn’t “screwing the pooch,” “jumping the shark,” or “squeezing all the toothpaste out of the tube.” It is coldly rational from their point of view.
America, like India, can do whatever it wants internally to stop its current terrorist problem, but Pakistan will continue to sponsor terror.
There will always be some terrorist clique that one of the Pakistani state power factions will have built up to start the terrorism cycle all over again.
The truth we have to face is that there is no one there who can enforce peace over all the Pakistani factions, and turn the ISI’s Islamist terrorists off, because Islamist hate — versus India or America — is the only thing that can rally popular support for the Pakistani State.
As a result, the Islamist factions inside the Pakistani state have more deniability for terrorist operations than the Mullah’s of Iran. To be blunt, the Pakistanis were playing a game of “Moderate Iranian Mullah” with us…until we found and killed Osama Bin Laden.
The people inside the American government ignoring this fact, and still pushing for “engagement” with Pakistan, are the Patrons of various Pakistani factions in the American Defense Department, State Department and CIA whose power and position are dependent on their Pakistani clients for “outsourced” human intelligence.
This is where President Obama’s showed his courage in the decision to kill Osama in Abbotabad…and nobody noticed.
The bottol line is that we can’t influence Pakistani behavior by bribing or talking at them, and our use of force is deterred by Pakistani nuclear weapons.
Until we eliminate their nuclear weapons.
Interesting observation, Trent:
I suppose it’s not just about power and position – we really need some level of contact to keep an eye on various groups. Sort of a “pay to play” phenomenon. However, is where our institutions get into the weeds and confuse themselves toward our real objectives, I think. Hmmm….
– Madhu