Dan from Madison

The Othering

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So I heard today that Bill DeBlasio (since he’s so smart and has done such a great job) is only letting people who can produce some sort of proof of vaccination into certain places like a gym or a bar. Other cities are probably doing the same or will before too long. Outside of instantly making business owners some sort of arbiters/law enforcement officials, having to decide what is proof and what is not, etc., this is just preposterous. What a stick in the eye to a person who actually has a religious belief that they shouldn’t get vaccinated. Or someone with a medical condition where this type of thing isn’t the best idea. Or someone who just says “hey, I don’t want it”.

I’m thinking that this is the point where actual guns may begin to come out and we will see things get a little “physical”. I’m hoping not but I can’t see any way around this. I’m vaccinated but won’t be patronizing any business that voluntarily does this.

Some Random Unscientific Observations About Covid

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The press is in full ramp up mode to sell ads and clicks with the new and improved delta variant of the commie crud (copyright Sgt. Mom on that term). Many localities are making people bring out the masks again. Here in beautiful Dane County, Wisconsin we have as of yesterday a “recommendation” that everyone wear a mask in a public place. Naturally, this is the first step to a new mandate. Same thing in Chicago and IL.

While cases are up here, hospitalizations, the key metric to me, are flat. From the Dane County commie crud dashboard, you can see that hospitalizations (as of this writing) sit at 23 people. It has been around there for many months now – sometimes under 20, sometimes it gets up to around 25. I check every day.

We have had one death due to covid in Dane county in the last two months. For those number geeks like me, that is eighteen ten thousandths of the population of Dane County that have died due to covid this Summer (so far).

If people aren’t in the hospital, why is everyone getting tested and causing the positivity rate to move up? All of the local big testing centers closed long ago. The only thing I can imagine is that people who are in for other things like a physical, or a knee replacement or something else are getting covid tested and coming up positive. And that would prove that most people, as many have been saying all along, are going to be just fine, even if they get the commie crud.

I decided to look at some stats for Los Angeles county to see what all the hubbub was about. Around eight hundred as of this writing are hospitalized with commie crud. Sounds like a lot, but still below the 14 day average. And far below January when there were 8,000 people in the hospital. Four people died yesterday, which is one one millionth of one percent of the population. I’m fairly certain that covid accounted for fewer deaths than traffic, crime, overdose, or any of a number of other ways to die in LA. So this is the deadly delta variant? Color me unimpressed.

And remember that a lot of these stats are probably wrongly recorded, as the old saying goes people dying with covid vs. from covid. But the data is the data. And still, (even with the cooked books) the number of people, for all of the yelling and screaming, that seem to be affected seems ridiculously low.

Keep calm and carry on.

Happy Birthday to US

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I was patiently waiting for one of the other authors here to put up some sort of post today to celebrate the birthday of these most excellent United States. Seeing nothing, I provide a short story before I wish you a most happy Fourth of July.

Last night I went to a local neighborhood party. It was one of those where the local dads pooled (a lot of) money to purchase various illegally obtained incendiary devices, both terrestrial and aerial. Many treats were served (dish to pass required for admission), and the theme of the party was all stars and stripes. Everyone had stars and stripes attire, the food was all stars and stripes, and the colors of the day were most certainly red, white and blue, down to the host houses hand towels in the bathroom.

Before the municipal sized devices were detonated, much conversation was had. Even though the people were across the political spectrum, all agreed that the idiotic and dunderheaded reaction to covid over the last year was hated by all, and many jokes were made about the higher ups making said terrible decisions. It was refreshing and a great time, without a mask in sight.

The American spirit, at least here in flyover country, is still strong. The national anthem was played before the fireworks, and during the explosions John Philip Sousa music was playing. We have a lot of problems in this country, but at least for one night, it was good to be a proud American. Most media will try to play it down and make all seem terrible. If they want to live in misery, so be it.

Happy Fourth to you all and God Bless America.

HVAC and the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect

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Today I read this choice article on Fox with the lengthy title of “Air conditioning shortage ahead of hot summer causes nationwide price spike” and was reminded of the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect. To remind everyone, the definition is:

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

As someone who has been in the field of HVAC distribution for 32 years I know a thing or two, as they say. Lets take a look at this article (yes, a good old fashioned fisking) and see if it reports what we are seeing on the ground here, or if reality has been distorted somewhat, and we perhaps have an example of the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect as I peruse the rest of the news for today.

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