COVID-19

SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Update 02 March 2020

by
The themes of this update will be on issues of COVID-19 spread, World Headlines, Major COVID-19 medical developments, the Washington State COVID-19 outbreak and its implications, and the social media and videos COVID-19 tracking source section.
 
Top line, There are currently 89,788 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 3,061 fatalities as of the 2 March 2020 at 7:03 a.m. ET time hack on the BNO News corona virus traking site (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) There are 65(+) and growing nations including China plus three “Chinese special administrative regions” (Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan) that have reported COVID-19 infections. China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, Iran, Germany, R.O.K.and the USA all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease.
 
World Headline Summary (As of late evening 3/1/2020):
 
o Global virus deaths hit 3,000 as China reports another 42
o NY State confirms 1st case of Covid-19
o Rhode island announces “presumptive” case; patient recently visited Italy
o Washington State confirms 2 more cases
o 2 new cases confirmed in California
o Israel case total hits 10 day before vote
o South Korea death toll hits 22
o Germany case total doubles in 24 hours to 129
o Mexico case total climbs to 5
o White House to hold meeting tomorrow with 8 pharma CEOs
o Italy reports 42% jump in cases overnight to nearly 1,700
o France reports 30 new cases, bringing total to 130
o Czech Republic, Dominican Republic report first cases
o Chinese health officials report first ‘double lung’ transplant connected to virus case
o Iraq, Bahrain confirm 6 new cases; Lebanon confirms 3
o 6 being tested in NYC for coronavirus
o South Korea confirms 18th death, officials seek murder charges for founder of church at epicenter of outbreak
o American Physical Society cancels major scientific conference
o Juventus quarantines U23 squad [Professional Soccer/football in Europe]
o Iran death toll hits 54 as Trump offers aid
o Thailand, Australia report first deaths
o Spain case count hits 73; France hits 100
o Independent scientist says it could have been spreading in WA for six weeks, with hundreds infected [Much more below]
o Italian cases number more than 1,100; South Korea reports more than 3,700
o Italian death toll hits 29 [with a 9% serious case rate]
o Luxembourg reports first cases, says it’s linked to Italy
o UK cases rise to 35 as 12 new cases confirmed; 2 cases infected inside UK
o UK health secretary says China-style lockdowns “an option”
 

Read more

Disease and Cold Drive History

by

Update: For example, drought.

This was not prompted by Coronavirus discussions in any way. My reading and podcast listening the past month have both led to considerations of disease affecting historical events. I have several times thought it would be fun to talk with Trent and Mike K about the subject over a beer or three.

The effect of disease on historical events has usually only been mentioned in extreme cases, when it is obvious that at least some influence must have occurred.  The effect of smallpox on the Aztecs, or the Black Death on the economics of Europe receive some mention, but even in those cases summary histories can leave them out. Amazing, but true. There has been some increase over the last twenty years of historians addressing the issue of disease directly, and the last five years has seen an explosive growth in that approach because of what we can learn from archaeology rather than written records.  What has then happened is that the text historians have doubled back and acknowledged “yes, this was there all along, but because we could not clearly understand symptoms nor measure extent we could not make definitive statements.” So they mostly said nothing.

Or, as I suspect, they preferred other explanations, as we all have, due to the training in how to look at history we have all grown up with. I may be partly guilty myself.  I have heard doctors offer up possible medical explanations they have run across in their reading, only to be greeted with blank looks and polite smiles.  No, silly.  It’s kings and battles and trade routes and technological advances. Diseases are just there all the time and have only a marginal effect. I have been only slightly more sympathetic until the last decade,

Read more

SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Update 29 Feb 2020

by

The themes of this update will be on issues of

– COVID-19 spread,
– World Headlines,
– US Good News,
– US Mixed News,
– A sample of US Relevant Coronavirus Stories,
– Medical Information of the Day,
– The SARS-CoV2 Virus and it’s COVID-19 infection ARE NOT THE FLU
– The On-Going Just-in-time, Sole Source in China Supply -Chain Crisis, and
– The social media and videos COVID-19 tracking source section.

Top line, There are currently 85,996 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,942 fatalities as of the 29 February 2020 at 2:46 p.m. ET time hack on the BNO News corona virus tracking site (https://bnonews.com/index.p…/…/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) There are 59 and growing nations including China plus three “Chinese special administrative regions” (Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan) that have reported COVID-19 infections. China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, Iran, Germany and R.O.K. all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease.

The US may currently have endemic spread as the CDC has confirmed 62 cases of coronavirus in the US (and there late breaking news of a COVID-19 death in Washington State and the slimming of a senior care facility in Kirkland). These include 44 people who were aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, three people repatriated from China and 15 US cases.

Spread inside the US cases include:
California: 9
Massachusetts: 1
Washington state: 1
Arizona : 1
Illinois: 2
Wisconsin: 1

World Headline Summary:

o Health authorities in Texas and Oregon report 12 new coronavirus cases in US
o US coronavirus case total hits 63, 2nd case ‘of unknown origin’ confirmed
o US issues travel advisory for Italy
o Italy says first case discovered in Lazio
o China, SK release nightly figures
o Google says employee who visited Zurich office has coronavirus
o France confirms 57 cases
o Italy reports 3 deaths in Lombardy; nat’l toll now 21; total cases 821
o Google employee tests positive for coronavirus after visiting Zurich office
o British man becomes 6th ‘Diamond Princess’ passenger to die
o Two Japanese dogs tested positive for coronavirus
o Mulvaney says school closures, transit disruptions may happen in US
o Dr. Tedros said Friday that there’s no evidence of ‘community outbreak’
o Mexico confirms 1st virus case [More below]
o Fauci warns virus could take ‘two years’ to develop
o Kudlow says “no higher priority” than the “health of the American people
o Toronto confirms another case
o WHO says 20 vaccines in development
o St. Louis Fed’s Bullard pours cold water on market hopes
o Netherlands confirms 2 more
o United cuts flights to Japan
o Advisor to CDC says shortage of tests in US creating a “bottleneck”
o Nigeria confirms first case in sub-saharan africa
o South Korea reports more than 1,000 new cases in under 48 hours
o Italy cases surpass 700
o WHO says virus will ‘soon be in all countries’

Read more

SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Update 2-27-2020

by

The themes of this update will be on issues of COVID-19 spread, World Headlines, The Trump news conference on community spreading in the USA, pandemic preparedness in the USA past & Present and a COVID-19 social media and video news tracking section.

Top line, There are currently  82,586 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,811 fatalities as of the 27 February 2020 at 6:40 a.m. ET hack on the BNO News corona virus traking site (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-
coronavirus-cases/) There are now 40(+) nations including China plus three “Chinese special administrative regions” (Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan) that have reported COVID-19 infections.

In a first for the Pandemic, COVID-19 infections outside China outnumber those reported inside China, See:

New Coronavirus Cases Outside China Overtake Inside for First Time
The first cases of coronavirus cropped up in several countries, including Norway, Greece and North Macedonia.
By Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder, Staff Writer”ƒFeb. 26, 2020, at 4:33 p.m.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-02-26/new-coronavirus-cases-outside-china-overtake-inside-for-first-time

World Headline Summary:

o South Korea reports 334 new cases, bringing the total number in the country to 1,595
o South Korea, US postpone joint military drills due to coronavirus
o The US State Department has issued a level 3 travel advisory urging people to reconsider going to South Korea
o CDC confirms first case of ‘unknown origin’ in US [See below]
o CDC reports 6 new cases among repatriated Americans
o WaPo reports Northern California has 16th US case, says it’s first of “unknown origin” and risks local spread [See below]
o 83 being monitored in Nassau County
o Orange County declares state of emergency
o Norway has confirmed its first case
o 8 quarantined in Westchester
o HHS confirms 15th US case
o Iran deaths hit 19
o Brazil confirms first case in South America
o France confirms 2nd death
o Japan’s Prime Minister is requesting that all elementary schools, junior high & high schools nationwide close starting next Monday until spring break
o Greece confirms first case
o Germany unleashes fiscal stimulus after confirming new cases
o Dems one-up Trump with $8.5 billion package compared to $2.5 billion.
o Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain confirm new cases
o Finland confirms 2nd case
o 1st 2 cases reported in Pakistan
o HHS Secretary tells Congress infectious disease fund has no extra uncommitted cash
o Congress begins talks on corona virus spending bill with vote expected early next month
o Germany health minister warns we’re at beginning of epidemic in Germany; 5 new cases
o Italy confirms 12th death, cases soar above 400
o North Macedonia confirms first case
o South Korea cases soar above 1,200 as gov’t begins testing of 200k patients
o Brazil confirms infected patient came on plane from Paris
o Ericsson confirms one of its employees in Croatia tested positive

Read more

Co-Vid 19 and Supply Chain

by

As I mentioned on these pages a few days ago, there will be supply chain issues with the Co-Vid 19 event, whether you think it is the next Black Plague, or just another version of the flu (from reading the comments on Trent’s post on the subject, we appear to have both reading here). As a reminder, I deal in HVAC distribution, which is a subset of industrial distribution. Most equipment for my market is made close to the USA or in the USA itself, but the component parts are many times made in China.

Today I got the first letter from a vendor talking about the possible issues. They are saying that they are preparing to see product shortages due to component supply problems and are actively trying to source from other places, but the information is very general in nature. It seemed more CYA than anything and almost could be a force majeure setup, recommended by their attorneys to get ahead of contracted jobs. I have no proof of that but have seen enough legal documents in my day to know that a lawyer or ten helped write their CoVid-19 letter rather than a bunch of HVAC dorks like me.

But let’s be real for a minute. The supply chain (in my industry) is long so we aren’t likely to see any problems for the Summer, as most of those orders for inventory are already in the tank and on their way to our warehouses. Fall/Winter is my estimate for issues in industrial distribution if the problem continues. And that could be a BIG problem for you if you have a house where a furnace breaks down and it is -20 outside. Critical infrastructure will get priority I am assuming (blood banks, etc) but you don’t know when that stuff will break, do you?

As I receive more communications from my vendors I will put up an occasional post here. I have a meeting next week in DC and will personally speak with many of my vendor contacts and may get more/better information at the cocktail parties when my contacts get loosened up from the booze. It’s going to be an interesting year in industrial distribution and I imagine that the Chinese are going to lose some business over this when it is all said and done, never to come back (the main reason I don’t think this whole episode is fiction/blown out of proportion – incentives).