COVID-19
SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Evening Update 2/24/2020 — Public Health Institution Credibility Collapse Proceeds A-Pace
COVID-19/SARS-CoV2 Update 2-23-2020 — When the “New Versailles Class” Meets Reality Without Privilege
The themes of this update will be on issues of COVID-19 spread, testing, public health institutional credibility, some e-mails evaluating the CDC and our elites, and my personal analysis of same after the top line infection numbers and headlines.
The SARS-CoV2 virus and it’s COVID-19 virgin fields infection seems to have a top line R(0) of between three and 6.7 — that is one person infects near seven people on average — because there are repeated “super spreader” events where one person slimed an institution with a lot of close contact and then the fomite contamination of that institutional setting causes everyone present to get the disease. Examples thus far include the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, a pair of prisons in China, and multiple hospitals in China and now South Korea. The rate of growth of the COVID-19 pandemic is such that we will be fighting it on a very large scale in a few weeks (no more than 10) in every nation world wide with the public and private medical institutions, societal resources, and people we have right now, with all their flaws. And not what we wish they were, but will never have. There simply isn’t going to be time and energy for blame games when issues of daily survival break upon us all.
Top line, there are currently 78,986 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,468 fatalities as of 23 February 2020 at 11:52 a.m. ET on the BNO News corona virus traking site (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) China, Taiwan Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, and Iran all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease. See multiple charts attached and headline summary
World Headline Summary:
o Italy confirms 3rd death and cancels last 2 days of carnivale in Venice as cases soar above 100
o 4 more cases confirmed in UK
o 200 Israelis quarantined
o Japan confirms more cases
o Japanese Emperor expresses hope for Tokyo Games (fat chance)
o ROK Gov’t total cases above 600
o Trump says US has everything ‘under control’ as he asks Congress for more money (I call B.S. below)
o EU’s Gentiloni says he has ‘full confidence’ In Italian health officials
o Turkey, Pakistan close borders with Iran as confirmed cases soar
o Global Times (Chinese Gov’t news source) says virus may not have originated at Hunan seafood market
o Axios reports shortages of 150 essential drugs likely. (Most source in China)
COVID-19 Update, Morning 2-21-2020 — Living & Dying from China’s Biological Chernobyl
Wednesday the world got the worst possible news about COVID-19 from China, and it explained all the strange things China was hiding since this disease first appeared. We are in the midst of China’ Biological Chernobyl. But first, the numbers. As of 20 February 2020 at 7:04 p.m. ET there were 76,192 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,245 fatalities. China 74,988 cases, 2,234 fatalities and International 1,205 cases, 11 fatalities. See the latest disease numbers here:
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
China admits aerosol infection possible in coronavirus outbreakKYODO NEWS – Feb 20, 2020 – 13:14
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China’s health authorities have admitted that people may contract the pneumonia-causing COVID-19 coronavirus by inhaling small virus-containing particles floating in the air, or so-called aerosol infection.
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Updated diagnostic and treatment guidelines published Wednesday say a person can be infected if they are “exposed to a high concentration of aerosol in a relatively closed environment for a long time.
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This is the sixth edition of the guidelines for treating patients of the new virus in China. The guidelines posit that the main routes of transmission are “droplets from the respiratory system” and “close contact.”
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Previous versions of the guidelines said the possibility of aerosol infection had yet to be clearly established.
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Aerosol infection is said to be prone to occur during medical procedures, such as when inserting a tube into the windpipe to ensure an open airway.“
And airborne transmission beyond the narrow medical procedures have been confirmed in South Korea. ROK public health officials tracked a single asymptomatic church lady to a Christian mega-church service of a 1,000 people. Below is the result:
Steve Lookner
@lookner
544 members of South Korea’s Shinchonji Daegu church have virus symptoms(This is the church with dozens of new cases in the past 2 days)https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1230698482207313920
The heart of the issue for 2019-nCoV is that it is a virgin fields epidemic. Everyone who hasn’t got it, will get it, absent a genetic gift or vaccine…and there will be no vaccine for a year, assuming this coronavirus is amenable to a vaccine.
…and that low viral load initial infection takes a very, very, very, long time to manifest as either positive test result or as
“symptoms.”
Additionally, four of five people that test positive for COVID-19 have either no or very minor symptoms while being infection spreaders.
Case in point is the South Korean church-lady who seems to have given COVID-19 infections to 544 people either by giving out communion or singing.
The infection rate right now is over 20% for the souls aboard Diamond Princess and it will take at least 24 days from their last
exposure to be detectable in new cases. The chaos and ineffectivness of the Japanese quarantine was such that every passenger, crewman or Japanese health ministry body on the Diamond Princess were likely exposed to infection causing viral loads right up to and through the flights back to their home countries.
There is now no chance stopping COVID-19, short of a vaccine, because China’s Communist Party allowed those 12 million exposed souls to travel the world.
COVID-19 is not just a flu. It is 20 times deadlier (2% death rate) with an intact medical system and 50 time deadlier (5% death rate) in a collapsed medical system. And every medical system in the world will collapse under the weight of SARS-CoV2 infections.
Buckle up. This will be a rough ride.
-End-
COVID-19 Update, Morning 2-20-2020
There are currently 75,772 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,129 fatalities as of this morning’s time hack. China has changed how they are reporting new cases yet again (two times they admit too) again, so numbers will decrease there. Worldwide less China, there are 1150 infected, with 10 deaths (1 Taiwan, 1 Japan, 1 Philippines, 2 Diamond Princes, 2 Hong Kong, 1 France, 2 Iran). There are both some number crunching and recent coronavirus developments in this update.
First, the number crunching:
Current death to recovery ratio outside Mainland China are:
Deaths 10
Recovered 176
10/(176+8)= 5.38% death rate.
The number of cases above are not large enough yet to draw statistical inferences for medical care outside Mainland China…yet
Inside Mainland China’s state of Hubei, where the medical system has been overwhelmed, things got a lot worse.
Deaths 2,029
Recovered 10,388
2029/(2029+10388) = 16.3% death rate (assuming you accept the numbers from CCP)
As long as high quality medical care is available to those who require intensive care, mortality rates should go down as more is known about successful COVID-19 treatment. Anywhere the system is overwhelmed, as happened is in Wuhan, it will be horrid.