Sound Familiar?

From “Raw Materials for War” by John Steele Gordon:

Still, many thought that globalization made war between the great powers impossible. In 1909, the British journalist Norman Angell wrote an internationally best-selling book, “The Great Illusion,” that argued that financial interdependence and the great growth in credit made war self-defeating, since it would result in financial ruin for both victor and vanquished.
 
Angell was dead wrong. (Oddly, it didn’t prevent him from winning the 1933 Nobel Peace Prize.) Extensive trade and financial relations did not stop Germany from declaring war on both Britain and Russia, its two largest trading partners, in 1914.

(Gordon is reviewing When Globalization Fails by James Macdonald.)

A couple of thoughts:

-“When globalization fails” might not be the best title. The real theme of the book appears to be complacency and overconfidence.

-The fact that China holds large amounts of US debt and is economically intertwined with the West may not be proof against war.

Anything is possible, and sometimes the odds aren’t what they appear to be.

Department of Unintentional Irony

House Minority Whip: DC has undermined confidence for too many years:

Congress has been undermining confidence among the private sector for too many years, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D.-Md.) said on Friday, referring to comments from former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers earlier on CNBC that confidence in and of itself is an economic booster.
 
“For instance, [the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act] was allowed to expire. The good thing we did with over 415 votes was to approve it this week. Frankly, we could have done that six months ago, and we…

Now he tells us!

To which Party does Rep. Hoyer belong, and which Party has done more to undermine business confidence over the past decade by systematically increasing taxation and regulation as a matter of governing philosophy?

Oh, and which Party is about to take control of Congress?

Quote of the Day

The conclusion of Progressives and Disorder, a WSJ editorial:

The final two years of the Obama Presidency will thus be the most dangerous since the end of the Cold War as the world’s rogues calculate how far they can go before a successor enters the White House in 2017. A bipartisan coalition in Congress may be able to limit some of the damage, but the first step toward serious repair is understanding how Mr. Obama’s progressive foreign policy has contributed to the growing world disorder.

Interesting times ahead.

Quote of the Day

Henry Kissinger, World Order (quoted in a review by Niall Ferguson):

…If the balance between power and legitimacy is properly managed, actions will acquire a degree of spontaneity. Demonstrations of power will be peripheral and largely symbolic; because the configuration of forces will be generally understood, no side will feel the need to call forth its full reserves. When that balance is destroyed, restraints disappear, and the field is open to the most expansive claims and the most implacable actors; chaos follows until a new system of order is established.