The Social and Economic Influence of AI and Robotics

…some historical precedents.

There is currently much discussion of the impending effects of artificial intelligence and robotics on employment, the economy, and our society as a whole. (here, for example)   I think it’s useful to look at some historical precedents, always keeping in mind the caution that ‘past results do not guarantee future outcomes.’

Peter Gaskell’s book Artisans and Machinery is about the effects of the industrial revolution, as seen by a contemporary observer.   I reviewed and excerpted it here, along with some much later commentary by the British writer and scientist CP Snow.

My post Attack of the Job-Killing Robots (three-part series) is a 30,000-foot view of the history of automation over the centuries and of some resulting automation panics.

Your thoughts?

Worthwhile Reading

Cultural Values and Productivity.   “When I investigate which country-of-origin characteristics most closely correlate with human capital, cultural values are the only robust predictor. This relationship persists among children of migrants. Consistent with a plausible cultural mechanism, individuals whose origin places a high value on autonomy hold a comparative advantage in positions characterized by a low degree of routinization.”   This ties in with Garrett Jones’ book The Culture Transplant, which I mentioned in my 2023 book roundup a few days ago.

Ruxandra argues that elite thought in our society has shifted toward excessive caution (safetyism), skepticism of technology, and zero-sum thinking and goes on to say ‘This shift poses what I believe to be the defining ideological challenge of our time.’   Also a continuation post, including an interesting chart showing the incidence of words related to progress versus those related to caution, in English, French, and German books.

Anna Mitchell suggests that “Westerners aren’t good at love because we’re unsuccessfully trying to reconcile two opposing love traditions. The first is a “passionate love” inherited from the Medieval courtly tradition that gives us a sense of spiritual transcendence that we’re desperately lacking in our secular age. The second is the Christian ideal of committed love in marriage, that makes us feel known as individuals. Retrofitting life-altering passion into the structure of marriage hasn’t worked well – as witnessed in sky-high divorce rates and a flood of negativity about dating”…”However, as social technologies have emerged over the past ~15 years, it also feels like “passionate love” of the 90s romcoms – where you meet someone in real life and get swept away – doesn’t hold the same cultural power. It’s not our only route to transcendence in a secular age. We already HAVE a reality-replacing option on a small screen.”

And from Justin Murphy:   “I think dating and marriage are broken because people simply have too many ideas in their heads. Many of them are correct in certain contexts, but none of them is universally true. The calculation overdetermines the encounter and love simply cannot bloom. My evidence is simply that every man and every woman I know who is dating and looking for marriage has so many notions—what they’re looking for, what they’re trying to avoid, what is a deal-breaker, what is essential, but also rigid interpretations of what various behaviors mean, what certain body language means, and so on.”   Reminds me of my old post about The Hunt for the Five-Pound Butterfly.

The personality and politics of 263 occupations.

Assyria, the First Empire.

A mental model megathread.   Some samples…

Example #13:   “Licensing Effect: Believing you’re good can make you behave bad. Those who consider themselves virtuous worry less about their own behavior, making them more susceptible to ethical lapses. A big cause of immorality is self-righteous morality”…and Example #14:   “Preference Falsification: If people are afraid to say what they really think, they will instead lie. Therefore, punishing speech whether by taking offence or by threatening censorship is ultimately a request to be deceived.”

Digital Logic, Implemented Mechanically…atomic scale, smaller than the smallest conventional logic gates.   Conceptually similar to classical railroad switch and signal interlocking; can apparently operate at speeds up to 500 MHz.

The history of videogame revenue.   Shown as $185B in 2023.

From Samizdata: “The shift from “it’s immoral to tell another culture’s story” to “it’s impossible to tell another culture’s story, but in any case, one shouldn’t try for moral reasons” is part of a process Pluckrose and Lindsay describe as “reification”, which emerged after I’d left the ivory tower and commenced moving companies around and drafting commercial leases for a living. Once reified, postmodern abstractions about the world are treated as though they are real things, and accorded the status of empirical truth. Contemporary social justice activism thus sees theory as reality, as though it were gravity or cell division or the atomic structure of uranium.”

Ilya Bratman, a linguist and Hillel leader (originally from the Soviet Union) reports on what he sees among students at NYC public colleges.

The Truthiness Is Out There

Is the term “conspiracy theory” ever used in a nonpejorative sense, in context with the actual definition of “theory?” Whether or not that be the case, my attention is focused on two aspects of the decidedly unsound variety rooted in speculation and/or outright hoax. First is overestimating the human capacity for large-scale concealment, cooperation, competence, knowledge, and consistency, violating a set of principles which I will dub Henderson’s Laws of Organization:

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2023 Reading

Some books I read & liked this year:

The Oceans and the Stars, Mark Helprin.   Subtitled ‘a sea story, a war story, a love story’ and set in the present era, this novel centers around Stephen Rensselaer, a talented naval officer who should have been an admiral. But his support of a new kind of warship antagonizes the president of the United States, who ensures that Rensselaer is assigned to a career-ending post commanding the only example of that type that will ever be built. While supervising the  Athena‘s fitting-out in New Orleans, he meets a lawyer named Katy Farrar and falls in love with her.   But on  Athena‘s first mission, Stephen will receive definitive orders that conflict strongly with his conscience.

Last Ships from Hamburg, Steven Ujifusa.   Between 1890 and 1925, a large number of Jewsestimated at 2.5 millionfled Russia and Eastern Europe to the haven of the United States.   This is the story of two men, both themselves Jews, who played a major role in enabling that immigration.   In Germany, Albert Ballin was managing director of the Hamburg-America line.   He put major focus on the immigration business, improving conditions in steerage class and providing shore-side accommodation and transport as well as ocean transportation; he even persuaded the German government to give his company control of part of its border, giving Hamburg-America a huge advantage over its rival North German Lloyd.   In the US, Jacob Schiff..the immensely wealthy managing partner of Kuhn, Loeb…contributed large sums and much energy to help with the housing and assimilation of these new Americans.

The Valley of Decision, Marcia Davenport.   This 1942 book could be subtitled An Industrial Romance, as could the 1945 movie starring Greer Garson and Gregory Peck.   It is centered on a family-owned steel mill in Pittsburg from 1873 thru the late 1930s.   Outstanding; I reviewed both the book and the movie  here.

Rust, Eliese Colette Goldbach.   Like Valley of Decision, this book is focused on the steel industry, but it is a memoir rather than a novel and is set in the current era. The author graduated had graduated from college and earned an MFA degree (which she never received owing to failure to fill out the proper form), and had never thought about becoming a steelworker. But seeing a friend’s paycheck from the mill convinced her to give it a try.

Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, as Viewed from the Early 1950s.   There were numerous SF stories in the early 1950s speculating about the future impact of “thinking machines” and robots.   I reviewed some of the most interesting ones  here.

The Mysterious Affair at Olivetti, Meyrle Secrest.   The story of this Italian company’s early pioneering efforts in computing.   Its Olivetti P101, introduced in 1964 at the New York World’s Fair.   Prefiguring Apple, the design of the product gave strong emphasis to its visual appearancethe P101 won the Compasso d’Oro industrial design awareand ease of use. Memory capacity was 240 bytes, stored in a magnetostrictive delay lineone of the interesting memory technologies developed prior to the availability of the microchip RAMand programs could be stored on magnetic cards.   About 44,000 of these systems were sold.

In addition to the interesting company historysurely unfamiliar to most Americansthe book argues that Olivetti was the target of a CIA plot to cripple its computer business in order to protect the American computer industry…something that seems to me to be most unlikely.

The Social Leap, William von Hippel.   The author argues that the development of human mental capacities was driven to a considerable extent by the need to learn from other people, not only the improvement of purely individual intelligence.

The Culture Transplant, Garrett Jones. The subtitle is ‘How migrants make the economies they move to a lot like the ones they left,’ and data is presented suggesting that attitudes brought by migrants on many dimensions of values and behavior are very long-lasting.

Lydia Bailey, Kenneth Roberts.   I actually read and reviewed this book in 2022, but it is highly relevant today in view of the depredations against shipping committed by the Iranian regime through their proxies, the Houthis.   Published in 1947,  Lydia Bailey  is set shortly after the American Revolution and portray some aspects of American and world history that are not well-known by most people today…the Alien & Sedition Laws, the Haitian revolution, and the war against the Barbary pirates.   Indeed, the history of the Alien & Sedition Laws is also unpleasantly relevant given the multifront attack currently going on against free expression.   I reviewed the book  here.

The End of the World is Just the Beginning, Peter Zeihan.   The book is subtitled ‘Mapping the Collapse of Globalization’, and the author argues that our present highly-interconnected world was made possible only by America, and that America has lost interest in keeping it going.   He sees global trade as having been primarily driven by the protective influence of the US Navy, which protective influence he sees as being substantially withdrawn.   Recent events in the vicinity of Suez do tend to fit with that point of view.

The Tyranny of Experts, William Easterly. A critique of top-down international development and anti-poverty efforts.   Many examples are provided.

Americana, Bhu Srinivasan.   Subtitled   ‘A 400-year History of American Capitalism’, the book focuses particularly on the relationship between government and businessand offers some unique perspectives. (Have you ever thought of the voyage of the Mayflower in venture capital terms?)

Paging Dr Kennedy

Maxwell Tabarrok, at X, asks:

Does anyone have good resources or a blog post on how surgery practice and outcome has improved or changed over the past several decades?

My first thought was that I’ll bet Michael Kennedy can provide some insight on this.

Michael, any thoughts?