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  • Archive for the 'Elections' Category

    Care to Bet?

    Posted by Lexington Green on 10th May 2012 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    British Bookmakers William Hill and Ladbrokes both have these odds on the US Presidential race:

    Barack Obama    1/2
    Mitt Romney  13/8

    That means people putting real money on the table are saying that as of today the odds are 2 to 1 in favor of Obama, 8 to 13 in favor, i.e. 13 to 8 against Romney.

    This is consistent with the steady 60 on Intrade in favor of Obama.

    Disregard the polls.

    The betting money says Obama wins.

    It is an uphill race for Romney.

    Posted in Elections, Politics, Polls, Predictions | 30 Comments »

    “Sooner or later, your schtick will wear thin, in half empty halls.”

    Posted by Lexington Green on 5th May 2012 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    This classic song by Nardwuar The Human Serviette & The Evaporators is dedicated to President Obama.

    He began his re-election campaign today in a half empty stadium in Ohio.

    Mr. Obama’s advance team really screwed the pooch on this one.

    The story is not his speech, or his campaign, but the empty seats.

    It is a long way to November. But this is not a good omen for Mr. Obama.

    “Sooner or later, your dream will crash, in half empty halls.”

    Posted in Big Government, Elections, Politics, USA | 27 Comments »

    Everybody Sing!

    Posted by Lexington Green on 10th April 2012 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    My New Mitt Romney Song
    (Lexington Green, 2012)

    (Sung to the Tune of “Give me that Old Time Religion”)

    Chorus:

    I’m votin’ for Mitt Romney
    I’m votin’ for Mitt Romney
    I’m votin’ for Mitt Romney
    He’s good enough for me

    Verses:

    He’s not Barack Obama
    He’s not Barack Obama
    He’s not Barack Obama
    That’s good enough for me

    He can beat Barack Obama
    He can beat Barack Obama
    He can beat Barack Obama
    That’s good enough for me

    (Repeat until Tuesday, November 6, 2012)

    Please feel free to make up as many additional verses as you want.

    Instrumental accompaniment may include: handclaps, banjo, clarinet, tin whistle, accordion, maraccas, farfisa, harmonica, tambourine, drums, sousaphone, foot stomps, kazoo, harpsichord, etc.

    Works best with one or more alcoholic beverages.

    Posted in Conservatism, Elections, Music, Politics, USA | 42 Comments »

    Early and Often

    Posted by Lexington Green on 20th March 2012 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    I Voted

    Posted in Elections, Photos | Comments Off

    The Era of the Creepy-State is Here

    Posted by Zenpundit on 6th March 2012 (All posts by Zenpundit)

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    George Orwell was more right than he knew….

    Congress passed a law – by unanimous consent in the Senate and by a suspension of rules in the House – to permit the Federal government to arbitrarily arrest and imprison for up to ten years members of the serf class (formerly known as “American citizens”) whose presence annoys or offends specially designated members of the elite and foreign dignitaries. A list that will no doubt expand greatly in future legislation to include very “special” private citizens.

    Think about that, future “Joe the Plumbers” or Cindy Sheehans, before you ask an impertinent question of your betters or wave your handmade cardboard sign. Is ten seconds of glory on your local ABC affiliate news at 5 o’clock worth that felony arrest record and federally funded anal exam?

    No? Then kindly shut your mouth, sir. Learn your place.

    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in Big Government, Civil Liberties, Civil Society, Elections, Human Behavior, Law, Politics, Privacy, Society, USA | 12 Comments »

    Quote of the Day

    Posted by Jonathan on 29th February 2012 (All posts by Jonathan)

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    Michael Barone:

    This election is a contest between a Democrat who wants to make this country more like Tocqueville’s France and Republicans who want to keep it more like Tocqueville’s America. The liberal bloggers are rooting for France.

    Posted in Elections, Obama, Political Philosophy, Politics, Quotations | 5 Comments »

    Recall Scott Walker Update

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 26th November 2011 (All posts by Dan from Madison)

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    Starting November 15 the official Recall Walker campaign began. I have to admit these people are going at it 100%. In Wisconsin (unfortunately) there is no standard for a recall. No crimes need be committed. You simply need to gather enough signatures and you can force a recall election. This must be changed, but that is a different subject for a different day.

    Driving home from work they have set up signature gathering posts on busy streets. Even on Thanksgiving day I saw a guy standing outside trying to gather signatures.

    They were at Best Buy soliciting signatures from the Black Friday campers but they were chased away by the Best Buy management.

    The people who want this are, apparently throwing everything they have at it. I have a few thoughts below the fold if you are at all interested.
    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in Elections, Politics | 3 Comments »

    A must read for every Conservative/Libertarian

    Posted by Bruno Behrend on 19th November 2011 (All posts by Bruno Behrend)

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    The linked article is, IMO, an important read for all of us in the think tank/free market movement. I’ve often started feeble attempts to write a nearly exact commentary, and thankfully, some one wrote it for me.

    It encompasses many of the things I’ve attempted to communicate in various debates/discussions with colleagues at Heartland and out on the Free Market Rubber Chicken circuit. It applies to libertarians as much as conservatives.

    MODERNIZING CONSERVATISM cogently lays out exactly why the conservative movement is heading toward rough waters.

    While I don’t agree with every aspect of prescribed remedies, the need for a reformation of the movement is 100% accurate, IMO.

    Some titillating excerpts…

    “Long-term evidence indicates that the starve-the-beast strategy not only fails, but may make the problem of unrestrained spending growth worse, suggesting that a “serve the check” strategy might be a more effective means of curbing the growth of government spending. The simple explanation for this seeming paradox is that the starve-the-beast strategy currently allows Americans to receive a dollar in government services while only having to pay 60 cents for it.”

    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in Academia, Anglosphere, Civil Society, Elections, Political Philosophy, Taxes | 15 Comments »

    No, Really

    Posted by Lexington Green on 31st October 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    A few months ago I wrote that I was going to stop obsessing about the presidential election.

    Dan correctly called bullish*t.

    But, I am now thinking more and more that (1) the time and energy spent thinking about the presidential election is wasted, and time is too precious to waste, and there is too much else that must be done, and (2) even if you must pay attention to politics, the down-ticket races are the ones that will matter, and it is possible to get involved and make a difference in those races, and I encourage everyone to do so.

    So, no kidding, this time for sure, I am done with this presidential election.

    I put my hands over my ears, close my eyes, and go ya ya ya ya ya ya ya really loud.

    At least until way, way closer to next November.

    Posted in Blogging, Elections, Personal Narrative, Politics, USA | 14 Comments »

    Herman Cain: Have We Seen This Movie?

    Posted by Lexington Green on 26th October 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    Herman Cain raises some echoes of things we’ve seen before.

    He reminds me of Ross Perot. The same outsider stance. The same businessman, anti-Washington background. His 999 plan reminds me of something that Perot might have come up with. But unlike Mr. Perot, Mr. Cain has charm, he has a sense of humor, he seems to have political rationality, and he seems not to be a megalomaniac. Perhaps most importantly, he is running as a Republican, which means he has a meaningful chance to actually win.

    He reminds me of Reagan. A crowd-pleasing speaker who can get the base of the party on its feet and clapping. Again, a sense of humor, and a lack of apparent egotism. He is like the Reagan of the mid-60s, a person who is leaving a successful career in another field to get into politics, though of course he is doing so much later in life. Also, like Reagan, he does not sweat the small stuff, which will drive wonks of all stripes, and the MSM, into hysteria.

    He reminds me of Clarence Thomas. He does not remind me of our two prior serious Black candidates for president, Mr. Obama and Rev. Jackson. He carries his African American heritage with dignity, and he is forthright about the hardships he and his family suffered. But he does not talk in terms of grievance or injustice, but of pride, progress and opportunity.

    He reminds me of Wendell Willkie, a candidate from outside the mainstream of the GOP, with a business background, who surprised the Party machine and captured the nomination as the champion to drive the liberal-progressive monster from the White House. If the Germans had not overrun Western Europe in 1940, turning the election into a foreign policy election, Willkie would have had a good chance to beat FDR. The odds of 2012 being a foreign policy election are poor, unless Mr. Obama initiates open warfare with Iran.

    Still, when you add it all up, the answer is no, this really is a brand new movie. We have not seen this movie yet.

    Herman Cain is mostly different from all the earlier movies.

    The ad with the guy smoking is a curve ball. Who does it appeal to? What does it mean? (Stop it at 40 seconds: Is that a joint?) What are we to make of this? It is funny, though.

    We will likely see more surprises.

    So, while my guess is that Mitt Romney will carry all before him, I would not bet on it, not yet.

    Posted in Elections, Politics, Video | 21 Comments »

    Romney

    Posted by Michael Kennedy on 25th October 2011 (All posts by Michael Kennedy)

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    I was quite concerned today to see this story on Powerline. The country is in serious straits because we have spent and are spending too much on public employees. My first wife went back to teaching a few years ago when she got laid off in a bank merger. She had a lifetime certificate in elementary education and has worked as a mortgage banker after our divorce in 1978. After that, she worked for the FSLIC, closing and liquidating insolvent S&Ls and currently. at the age of 72, she works for the FDIC doing the same thing. Her brief experience as a third grade teacher about 20 years ago, appalled her. She was always a public school advocate. After the divorce, the kids all went to private school. Now she says she would home school them.

    Herman Cain won my support when he was asked what role the teacher’s unions played in out current school mess. He said that, as far as he was concerned, teachers’ unions were responsible for the school troubles. Would Romney say that ? He would be dreaming if he concluded that going easy on teacher’s unions would earn him any votes. Ditto for public employee unions.

    Why then would he disclaim supports for a budget bill that affects public employee unions?

    Why is he such a squish ?

    Posted in Elections, Politics | 24 Comments »

    Palin’s Out

    Posted by Lexington Green on 5th October 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    So, Mitt? Rick? Or, maybe, Herman?

    I like Herman.

    Rick looks better than Mitt, but I don’t love Rick.

    But any of them are better than Mr. Obama.

    This simplifies matters.

    Let’s pick a guy and then beat Mr. Obama.

    More important, let’s get the Senate, and a Tea Party Congress.

    Not containment. Victory and rollback.

    Posted in Elections, Politics, Tea Party, USA | 19 Comments »

    Herman Cain at TeaCon

    Posted by Lexington Green on 1st October 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    I was at TeaCon. I wore my cool 2012 Gadsden shirt. It was a very successful event, jam-packed, lots of good stuff.

    Herman Cain was the highlight. His speech at TeaCon tore the roof off.

    Mr. Cain had the crowd on their feet and clapping until their hands hurt.

    He had everyone smiling, ear to ear, I noticed.

    It reminded me of Reagan. Mr. Cain is very much a happy warrior. Voters prefer cheerfulness to anger.

    He is a contender.

    That means he will now be in everyone’s crosshairs.

    If he can survive the gauntlet he could beat Romney, and if he can do that he will be formidable, and could beat Obama.

    Not surprisingly, he won the straw poll.

    (Michael Barone has a good piece about Mr. Cain.)

    UPDATE: Commenter Cynthia has a link to a good piece on Mr. Cain’s background. Worth reading.

    Posted in Elections, Politics, Tea Party, USA | 35 Comments »

    So This Is How Democracy Dies

    Posted by Bruno Behrend on 30th September 2011 (All posts by Bruno Behrend)

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    embedded by Embedded Video

    YouTube DirektHow Liberty Dies

    How is this for a headline?

    “Key Democrats call for Ending Democracy”

    Some people subscribe to the idea that politicians are stupid. They shoot from the hip until reined in by their consultants during election season. There is probably a great deal of truth to that. On the other hand, the use of the “trial balloon” is a well-tested technique for gauging public reaction to an idea.

    With that in mind, I submit today’s WSJ’s “Notable and Quotable” into evidence to let the jury decide.

    “Most Americans complain that government is unresponsive to their wishes. But not everyone feels that way. In the space of two days, two prominent Democrats have called for less responsive government that ignores public input.
     
    One of them, former White House Budget Director Peter Orszag, penned a piece this week in the New Republic arguing, as the title says, “Why we need less democracy.” Orszag wrote that “the country’s political polarization was growing worse—harming Washington’s ability to do the basic, necessary work of governing.” His solution? “[W]e need to minimize the harm from legislative inertia by relying more on automatic policies and depoliticized commissions for certain policy decisions. In other words, radical as it sounds, we need to counter the gridlock of our political institutions by making them a bit less democratic.” . . .
     
    [S]imilar comments by Gov. Bev Perdue, D-N.C., are far more troubling. “I think we ought to suspend, perhaps, elections for Congress for two years and just tell them we won’t hold it against them, whatever decisions they make, to just let them help this country recover,” Perdue told a Rotary Club gathering in suburban Raleigh this week. “I really hope that someone can agree with me on that.”

    Gaffe or Trial Balloon?

    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in Anglosphere, Big Government, Elections, Political Philosophy, Politics | 24 Comments »

    Two Easy Questions

    Posted by Lexington Green on 27th September 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    1. Would Romney be a better president than Obama?

    2. If a third party candidate ran to the right of Romney, if he were nominated, is there any chance of Obama NOT being reelected?

    To me the answers to this are too obvious to need to be spoken aloud, but lets do it.

    1. Of course Romney would be better than Obama. Does that mean I prefer Romney to any of the other GOP candidates? No. Does that mean I like the idea of Romney being president? No. Does it mean that pretty much any of the current Republican field, including Romney, is better than Obama? Hell yes.

    2. It is going to be very, very hard to beat Obama as it is. The solid blue states get him most of the way there in terms of electoral votes. His supporters are united, mobilized, well-funded, and they will have a massive MSM barrage on their side. It is very difficult to unseat a sitting president. Even though the country is in an ongoing economic disaster, and even though Mr. Obama has done a miserable job as president, he is still barely below 50 on Intrade. Most likely he will bottom out long before the election. Odds are, he will win, as it is now. If the opposition is divided, Mr. Obama sails to victory, and we get four more years of this.

    If there is any defect in that analysis, please tell me what it is.

    (Do not engage in personal insults directed at me or I will delete any such comment. They do not advance the discussion. Save that for your own blog.)

    Posted in Elections, Politics, USA | 29 Comments »

    Mitt? Rick? Herman? How much does it matter?

    Posted by Lexington Green on 27th September 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    I am thinking more and more that the GOP presidential candidate is a distraction.

    Whoever it is will be better much than Mr. Obama, so don’t worry about it. Mr. Obama makes Mitt Romney look like George Washington.

    So, what does matter?

    Making sure we have a Tea Party Congress in 2012 is the most important thing.

    Then the 2013-15 political era will be a conflict between a corporatist Republican in the White House and a populist Congress down the street.

    Some good could come of that.

    (The Ds will be on the sidelines for a while if that happens. But they will soon be back.)

    So what, concretely, starting now, can we do to make sure that we get a good, solid Congress in 2012?

    Suggestions in the comments, please.

    UPDATE: It occurs to me, this is another way of saying that the Tea Party / Insurgency is probably not yet politically mature enough to capture the presidency with one of its own. So, get as much as you can this go-around, but don’t worry too much about what is still beyond your grasp. Mass political movements in American history don’t usually capture the presidency less than three years after they start.

    Posted in Elections, Politics, USA | 50 Comments »

    Palin v. Crony Capitalism

    Posted by Lexington Green on 14th September 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    I have long believed that the biggest problem we have in this country is that the government and the businesses that have captured the regulatory state have become one seamless monstrosity.

    A lot of people have had a hard time getting their heads around this.

    Lefties like to think that “business” is evil but that “government” regulates it to protect the people from pollution and defective products, etc.

    Righties like to think that “business” = free enterprise, menaced by the evil “government” that is driving it to extinction.

    Both are mostly wrong.

    The government has turned into an amalgamation of iron triangles — regulators, legislators (or actually their staffs) and industries that are regulated. These work in tandem to their mutual advantage at the expense of the taxpayer and of truly entrepreneurial and innovative businesses. It is in the joint interest of this business/government crony capitalist complex to crush out potential rivals and created government sponsored, protected and subsidized monopolists.

    This is precisely the hazard the USA was founded to fight against. The American Revolution was provoked by British monopolists authorized by the Crown — crony capitalism, 18th Century style. The founding generation was acutely aware of this problem. Further the major thinkers influencing 19th Century liberal thought in the USA, Canada and Britain were all focused on this problem: Jefferson, Edmund Burke and Adam Smith. (See the brilliant book The Transatlantic Persuasion: The Liberal-Democratic Mind in the Age of Gladstone by Robert Kelley, which explains this now-forgotten history.)

    The greatest threat to our liberty is the uniting of government power and private greed, and that is exactly what we are facing now.

    The creation of a regulatory state meant its inevitable capture by the industries it supposedly regulated. I remember having a life-changing intellectual moment when I read The Logic of Collective Action by Mancur Olson as an undergrad at the University of Chicago. (If you have not read this, you must do so. Really.) George Stigler’s analysis of the regulatory state was consistent with this picture. (See, e.g. The Citizen and the State: Essays on Regulation.) Once you see how this works, it is obvious that this process is inevitable.

    The political class that services this machine has come to be known in Chicago as The Combine. Both parties service the machine, with no substantial difference between them. The Democrats tend to have more of what our co-blogger Carl from Chicago, in an excellent and prescient post, called stone-cold redistributionists, but neither party has any interest in making any basic changes in these arrangements. Mr. Bush, with the bank bailouts, then Mr. Obama, with Solyndra being just one of many egregious examples from him, has taken this process to a new level.

    During the Cold War, people would argue that the United States and the Soviet Union were “converging.” The argument went that the Soviet Union would liberalize and become more humane, while the USA would become more socialistic, and we would all end up looking something like a utopian notion of Sweden. This did not happen. The Soviet Union fell apart. Mr. Fukuyama famously asserted that liberal democracy had “won” and that the ideological struggles of modernity were over, and history had ended.

    But what if the final state is not democratic capitalism? What if convergence is right after all? What if Soviet communism fell apart and turned into a mafia state run by an alliance of government and favored businesses, which control the country by corruption and intimidation, a nomenklatura that strips out all the value in the country on behalf of a well-connected elite, immiserating everyone else. This amoral, vicious, greed-driven, undemocratic dystopia is what we are now converging toward. It is an Orwellian future, with an Inner Party of senior politicians and business executives, an Outer Party of government employees and business managers, and a vast, despoiled, proletariat with no opportunities, or assets or future. It sounds like the world Mr. Obama is brazenly pushing us toward. It also sounds like a future that no Republican has so far dared to point to, to name, to denounce and to oppose — because they would prefer to be in on the game than take the risks inherent in opposing it.

    So, Fukuyama was right: We are approaching a single form of governance around the world. Unfortunately, it turns out, it’s fascism.

    Until Gov. Palin’s speech on September 4, 2011, in Indianola, Iowa.

    … there is a name for this: It’s called corporate crony capitalism. This is not the capitalism of free men and free markets, of innovation and hard work and ethics, of sacrifice and of risk. No, this is the capitalism of connections and government bailouts and handouts, of waste and influence peddling and corporate welfare. This is the crony capitalism that destroyed Europe’s economies. It’s the collusion of big government and big business and big finance to the detriment of all the rest – to the little guys. It’s a slap in the face to our small business owners – the true entrepreneurs, the job creators accounting for 70% of the jobs in America, it’s you who own these small businesses, you’re the economic engine, but you don’t grease the wheels of government power.

    Please listen to this speech, or read it, if you have not done so already.

    Today, Instapundit linked to a Facebook post entitled “Crony Capitalism on Steroids.”

    She is pounding the same drum.

    She is apparently going to make this theme the main focus of a Presidential campaign.

    Say what you like about Mrs. Palin. She is the only person in public life who has successfully identified the threat, named it, shone a spotlight on it, denounced it, and begun to threaten it.

    This is the first faint flicker of hope I have seen that our political order can be reformed democratically without a massive, system-wide failure happening first. Maybe the other candidates will be forced to respond to these denunciations, maybe there will be a populist response to this challenge raised by Gov. Palin. I hope so.

    We do live in interesting times, and they just got a lot more interesting.

    UPDATE: Paul Ryan had this excellent speech linked on Instapundit. Here’s an excerpt:

    … if we surrender more control over our economy to the governing class – then life in America will become defined by a new kind of class warfare: A class of bureaucrats and connected crony capitalists trying to rise above the rest of us, call the shots, rig the rules, and preserve their place atop society at the expense of working Americans, entrepreneurs, and the small businesswoman who has the gall to take on the corporate chieftain.

    My highlighting. Sounds familiar.

    More of this, please. Faster, please.

    Posted in Big Government, Book Notes, Business, Chicagoania, Conservatism, Economics & Finance, Elections, History, Libertarianism, Politics, Predictions, Russia, Society, Tea Party, USA | 23 Comments »

    CHICAGO TEA PARTY SEPTEMBER MEETING

    Posted by Lexington Green on 7th September 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    Tonight at 7:00 at Blackie’s Chicago, 755 S. Clark.

    See you there you barbarian SOBs.

    Posted in Announcements, Chicagoania, Elections, Tea Party | Comments Off

    Bleg for Logo: “Proud to be a Tea Party Son of a Bitch”

    Posted by Lexington Green on 6th September 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    This little episode really does cry out for a t-shirt, bumper sticker, what have you.

    The above phrase may be a good way to embrace the insult and turn it against its originators.

    Other ideas are also possible.

    Anyone got any ideas? I will post any good ones I receive.

    UPDATE: This is just OK. There should be more options.

    Posted in Elections, Politics, Tea Party | 13 Comments »

    Nazareth, Hair of the Dog (1975)

    Posted by Lexington Green on 6th September 2011 (All posts by Lexington Green)

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    “Now you’re messin’ with a son of a bitch.”

    New Tea Party theme song?

    Posted in Elections, Music, Tea Party, USA | Comments Off