Biden

Midterms and Mayhem

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Abstract: A “red wave” midterm election seems about to occur. Notwithstanding the apparent (relatively) recent precedent of the 1994 midterms, the eight weeks from Tuesday 8 November 2022 to Tuesday 3 January 2023 may become the most challenging period to date in the entire history of the American constitutional order, not excepting the “Secession Winter” following Tuesday 6 November 1860. A broadly similar situation would almost certainly exist if the relative positions of the major political parties in the US were reversed. Even with alarming possibilities in view, this post is intended to promote constructive apprehension, not mere fearfulness.

Like all good students at our eponymous institution, you get the theoretical elements first, then more practical aspects, and falsifiable predictions at the end.

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What is the Purpose of a Senator

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Dr. Oz is a bit weird, and I’m bothered by his apparent mixed loyalties.   Still, I’m pulling for him.    I assume a good heart surgeon learns, processes, acts.   And apparently he did very well.    Secondly, I only watched one of his shows but he listened closely to his guest (with a certain modesty, as in his response to Oprah).   I like patents – we need people who   analyze, define, and solve problems.   We are less sure of what he will be than we are of more conventional candidates.   Still, a life time of work done well make it less of a gamble.

Then there’s Fetterman – with remarkably few accomplishments, he would fight crime and increase energy with flailing, contradictory slogans.   His party praised his “performances”.   But senators reason, and it is the reasoning before the vote, the give and take with opponents, that defines a Senator’s value.    A Senator is, after all,   joining one of the great, if not the greatest, of deliberative bodies.   Some, we hear in their ads, still see that role.   But is that even a majority?   And how much do the parties differ?

His party wanted to own his vote.   Their job is to elect sufficient pawns to give a majority.   Then, they give up the power of their vote to the leaders who give up theirs to the swamp, leading to a populace more and more restless and less and less able to fight free of the octopus.   And so it matters little that Fetterman can not deliberate.   In his stabs at making an argument for his candidacy, he says he’ll be the 51st vote.   Of course.    Not as a representative of Pennsylvanians.   That vote and not that voice is what made him worth millions.    And so he is elected by the party, not the people.

We can’t possibly know what Oz will be like as senator; however, we all know what Fetterman will be.

And is his role as cipher all that different from Biden’s?   Or even the without-the-excuse of a stroke or senility, Kamala Harris?   How much applies to other members of Congress, some even more visibly impaired (Diane Feinstein, for instance).

Where Have All the Flowers Gone?*

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It’s an ongoing mystery to me, in this year of 2022, with a hot war going on in the Ukraine and the Biden Administration (or the Kalorama Kominturn which apparently holds the puppet strings) apparently doing everything it can to provoke Russia into turning the war even hotter … that the usual peace activists, who have been out to protest US involvement in every conflict going since I was in the 6th grade are nowhere to be found. Seriously, where are they the usual peace activists, with their signs and protests at the gates of military bases, at recruiting offices and at the Pentagon … where are they? Where are the activist priests and nuns, the 60’s retreads, the determined if slightly addled, who used to routinely break into the back reaches of certain air bases in the southwest, searching for munitions and aircraft that they could splash blood-red paint and slogans all over, much to the bafflement of the security police patrols who often found them wandering in the desert, armed with buckets of paint and towering self-righteousness … yes, I had acquaintances in the security police back then, who often regaled me with tales like this.
Every time that matters of a military nature with regard to the US were about to turn from a warm simmer to red hot there they were, on the ground, fulminating in the groves of academy, or on the pages of such reliably progressive publications like Harper’s, of the NY Times, and in the streets of Washington D.C. there were the peace activists protesting. It was like the birds flying south for the winter; regular and predictable, until now. So, where are the deeply and ostentatiously committed peaceniks now? Are they out protesting the very real possibility of a nuclear war with Russia over independence of the Ukraine? Where are the Ramsay Clarkes, Noam Chomskys, even the Cindy Sheehans of 2022, the impassioned student peace marchers?
There was always a suspicion and depending on the year and the conflict a well-founded suspicion that many organized peace and anti-nuclear protest groups were Soviet-funded and if so, I do wonder if they still are. Are the Soviet checks bouncing, or are they not being sent at all, since … open war with the United States is what Putin and his allies in what remains of the Soviet Union really want? Could it be that the Biden Administration also wants an open war with Russia, as a distraction and a ready excuse to crack down on critics and political opposition? Place your bets, ladies, gentlemen and uncommitted beings. Your insights are appreciated.

* Classical reference, link here.

Brian Deese — The Musical Tribute Continues

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I first heard of Brian Deese during the Obama administration, when he was appointed as one of the ‘Czars’ for the auto industry…and I was inspired to write this little song.   (with apologies to Gilbert & Sullivan)

I see that Mr Deese–now the Director of the National Economic Council–is much in the news lately, most recently for this interchange:

CNN: “What do you say to those families that say, ‘listen, we can’t afford to pay $4.85 a gallon for months, if not years?'”
BIDEN ADVISOR BRIAN DEESE: “This is about the future of the Liberal World Order and we have to stand firm.”

So, I saw no alternative other than to resort again to a musical form of expression.   Here, to be sung to the tune of “I’ve been working on the railroad”, is the next song in my continuing tribute to Mr. Deese:

I’ve been workin’ up at Blackrock
All the livelong day
Hung out there during the Trump years
Yeah, I really liked the pay!

Had to package those investments
Rise up so early in the morn
Hear the other partners shouting
‘Brian, blow our ESG horn’

Now I’m back here in the government
Washington, DC
Surely speaks well for Joe Biden
That he’s impressed with me

I explain that economic problems
Are surely not our fault at all
Whatever it may be the numbers say
Or those charts up on the wall

Someone’s in the kitchen with the data
Someone’s in the kitchen I know-o-0-0
Someone’s in the kitchen with data
Watching the inflation quickly grow

And singing
Fee-Fi-Fiddly-I-O
CPI and PPI up wo-wo-wo-wo
Fee-Fi-Fidly-I-O
Watching the inflation quickly grow

What you going to do about it, Brian?
What are you and Biden going to about it woo-woo-woo-woo
What you going to do about infla-tion
Seems like the folks are getting a clue

They’re singing
Fee-Fi-Fiddly-I-O
Can’t afford to drive or eat wo-wo-wo-wo
Can’t afford to pay our rent or mort-gage
Watching the inflation quickly grow

Need to polish up that narrative
Why there’s nothing we could do
Have to let the prices rocket up
Or the Liberal World Order is so screwed

We’re singing
Fee-Fi-Fiddly-I-O
Nothing we could do about it wo-wo-wo-wo
Fee-Fi-Fiddly-I-O
It’s best to let those energy prices grow

Life in a Realm of Scarce and Expensive Energy

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In one of the Hornblower novels, set in the early 1800s, the protagonist is staying in a hotel. Thinking about the bill he is going to have to pay on checking out, he realizes that there is going to be a significant item for ‘light’…ie, candles.   I believe this is historically accurate–candles were expensive enough that they could not just be given away free with the room.

Whereas for most of the last 100 years in America, you could just turn on the lights in your hotel room without worrying about what the added charge on your bill was going to be.   And–much more significantly in terms of energy use–you could adjust the heater or air conditioner to suite your temperature preference, again without worrying about added charges.

With the unrealistic energy plans of the Biden administration and of most European governments, such luxuries may soon be a thing of the past.   I doubt that you will actually have to pay extra for keeping the lights on, but it’s entirely possible that you may have to pay extra if you want it cooler than, say, 78 degrees in summer or warmer than 64 degrees in winter–perhaps with those thresholds adjusted according to the balance of total grid power demand and availability, so that an extreme air-conditioning surcharge kicks in at 88 degrees on an especially hot and windless day.

And not just in hotels. It’s likely that stores, restaurants, etc will get significantly cooler in winter and warmer in summer.   And unless you can afford to not worry about your electricity bill very much, you will likely have to adjust your home temperatures to fit the current supply/demand profile on the grid–indeed, in some jurisdictions, it may be prohibited to violate the required limits no matter how much you are willing to pay.   (With likely exceptions for certain ‘public servants’.)

Above and beyond the impact on individual citizens and families, you can expect that many kinds of energy-dependent businesses, especially manufacturing businesses, will become increasingly uncompetitive in the US.   Again, there will likely be an exception for certain politically-well-connected businesses. But overall, expensive US energy will likely drive a new wave of offshoring.

And I haven’t even talked about transportation.

The above is not carved in stone, of course, there is still a good chance to escape it, as people begin to perceive (from experience) the realities behind all the idealistic talk, theories, and harangues.   But it will be a close-run thing.